Sunday, August 28, 2011
At Long Last...
PYB finally offers up its annual college football season win over/under prognostications, which hit at about .500 every year. So pick the right teams with the right juice and you may come out ahead. First, however, we've got some commentary.
The Omaha World-Herald published its 2011 College Football preview, which covers Nebraska's move to the Big 10 in depth. A few notes:
1. One amusing thing is the hype on the bullshit tradition of trophy games. Can't compete for the Sears Trophy---ever? Put extra emphasis on some unidentifiable relics to make yourself feel significant. If you pass this quiz, your team is a perennial also-ran...
2. The OWH picks Iowa to beat Nebraska---in Lincoln. Not going to happen. This rivalry can't be manufactured, no matter how much Tom Shatel jerks off about the Heroes Game. Iowa must do something to establish itself as NU's rival, and an under-the-radar 10-2 season every few years doesn't cut it. No matter how badly the media wants it to be, they can't make it so. Does the OWH sell that many copies in Southwest Iowa that it needs to soft-soap its readership there? At least it's possible to share a beer with Iowa fans (most of them). The same can't be said about fans from Kansas State.
3. Reading about NU's year-end meltdown from 2010 makes us sick every time. Sick while realizing what a shit coach Shawn Twatson was and what a pussy Taylor Martinez is. Area scribes have conveniently granted him the "he was injured" pass, while forgetting the complete lack of leadership, decision making and balls that he displayed for a solid six weeks.
4. Jamal Turner ceased taking snaps at QB, supposedly because NU added Anthony Ridder after another career-long scrub hurt his knee. Huh? Anyway, the OWH offered a nice roster breakdown here. Quick questions:
--How can NU be so horrible at LB outside of LaVonte David? Sean Fisher, Will Compton, Jim Ebke, Graham Stoddard, Trevor Roach and their Class C-2 resumes don't exactly conjure visions of Michael Barrow, Ray Lewis and Jon Vilma.
--How can they have ONE wide receiver who has any meaningful experience?
--How can they have 28 (seriously) offensive linemen listed and not be able to field five who can stay healthy and block someone? On that note, here's 2011's first FUCK YOU to Barney Cotton.
--How can NU's defensive line be called its strength when it has exactly ONE player who has shown that he can play at an above-average level? (@whitemamba9fo)
--How many fumbles will NU cough up this season and what is the over under on their turnover margin? We say 32 and -12.
5. Collins Okafor carries a 3.475 in biological sciences. Apparently, he overrated his ability on the field when he pulled his Eric Crouch "Run Home to Omaha Like a Baby" move a couple years back.
6. Finally, hats off from PYB to Anthony Blue. The former highly-acclaimed recruit out of Cedar Hill, Tex. has decided to hang it up due to a chronic knee injury.
So....let's get to it. We'll save you a pointless Top 25 ranking, when there are probably only three good teams in the country anyway, and nobody knows who they are and won't until mid-October...
UNLV (2.5) -- No idea who they play. No idea how bad they are. Just know that they will be playing the late game on several occasions and we'll be blasted. It's either go to bed or find a reason to stay up until 1am. Rooting for the Rebels will do just fine.
Stanford (8.5) -- What we saw from Andrew Luck last season is enough to think the Cardinal won't lose more than three of its five losable games.
Texas A&M (8.5) -- We had the over penciled in before the SEC rumors ran rampant. If they get tabbed for a sayonara fuck job like Nebraska did last season, it would spell trouble. If the Aggies can win at least one of two against Arkansas and Okie State their first four games, 9-3 should be good.
Virginia Tech (10) -- This pick got stronger as the best team on the Hokie schedule, Miami, is now likely to be paralyzed by suspensions. The rest of the slate is a combination of bad teams (ie Arkansas State and Virginia) and horribly mediocre FCS & ACC teams (Appalachian State & Georgia Tech). Frank Beamer will again have VT ready, despite the loss of QB Tupac Taylor -- one of the more overrated players at his position in recent college football days. Unless you're Matt O'Hanlon, of course.
Wisconsin (9) -- Consider a horrible non-conference schedule (UNLV, Oregon State, Northern Illinois and South Dakota) and the fact that the Badgers only have four losable games. 9-3 at worst.
USC (7.5) -- Add the fact that the Trojans still have a tremendous depth of talent to the fact that Matt Barkley will be in his third year as USC's QB, and you've got at least 8-4 in the books. The Trojans start off with a favorable early run with Minnesota, Utah and Syracuse at home, followed by perennial choker Arizona State next in Tempe. There are a few possible bumps later, but USC will outclass most of them and we have a sneaking suspicion Lane Kiffin might get them rolling. Sure, he's a douche, but he'll rack up some wins.
Miami (8.5) -- We had the 'Canes pegged for the overs before all hell broke loose in Coral Gables. Funny that the world is shocked that UM players were banging whores and getting free booze. Jacory Harris was shaky, at best, before being thrown into this bright spotlight. Line is off the board now, as everyone outside Miami roots for them to get the death penalty, even though The U hasn't been above average for seven years.
TCU (9.5) -- Three losable games and nine cupcakes. If the Frogs can win one of those three, you're golden.
Michigan State (7.5) -- Can Sparty keep the momentum from last season going? MSU has three games it probably won't win if you take this over: at Ohio State, Wisconsin and at Nebraska. If they can avoid stubbing their toe against both Notre Dame and Michigan, eight wins is a lock. And we all know anything is possible when it comes to the Spartans on Saturdays.
Penn State (7.5) -- If the Lions can get through its murderer's row of Indiana State, Temple, Eastern Michigan, Indiana and Purdue, they would need just three more wins against Alabama, Iowa, Northwestern, Illinois, Nebraska, Ohio State and Wisconsin to get to eight. Improved QB play would make it possible. Stalled development, and it's hello 6-6.
Michigan (7.5) -- With a shred of defense, the Wolves have a chance to be 5-0 if they can just get by MIGHTY Notre Dame in Ann Arbor. After that, three more wins against Northwestern, Michigan State, Purdue, Iowa and Illinois would get them to eight. If Brady Hoke is indeed stupid enough to bury Denard Robinson under center, then all bets are off.
Oklahoma (10.5)-- If the Sooners can get past FSU in their second game, they don't face another good team until Texas A&M in game nine and nothing until Bedlam in the final week against Okie State in the high school stadium that T. Boone Pickens donated $1 billion for.
Alabama (10) -- Schedule filled with potential potholes. Lost three games last year. No Julio Jones or Mark Ingram. Under.
Boise State (10.5) -- It all hinges on game one in Athens against the Dawgs. We're betting on a loss.
LSU (9.5) -- Now off the board, we had them for the under prior to the Showdown at Shady's with the US Marine Corps. An inconsistent team and a schedule with eight losable games.
South Carolina (9) -- The Michigan State of the SEC--the Cocks could fuck up a wet dream. Steve Spurrier's squad is blessed with a favorable schedule for SEC standards but will still lose four times.
Arkansas (8.5) -- The Flavor of the Week is that the 'Hogs could be better without Ryan Mallett, who looked like an extra from 8 Mile during his Fayetteville career. Well, star RB Knile Davis (this name makes us think MooseKnuckle every time) torched his ankle in the first week of practice and is out for the season. Couple that with games at aTm, LSU and Bama and four losses is a given.
Georgia (8.5) -- Will the Dawgs ever be back? A favorable schedule gives them only games against borderline Top 25 conference teams and bottom feeders. However, Mark Richt's team isn't stable enough to keep from stumbling, and if you take these unders along with Boise, one of the teams is starting with a loss right out of the gate.
Oklahoma State (8.5) -- Expectations in Stillwater? Bet on the flop now and take your money to the bank!
Florida State (9.5) -- Apparently, FSU is again a Top 5 team. Funny, since they haven't been good for years. We tried to look it up, but the Noles' web site sucks dick and after searching through the past three seasons we gave up. Just so you know, they've lost three, four and five games those past three years.
Arizona State (8) -- The Sun Devils are awful on the road and travel to Illinois, Utah, Oregon, UCLA and Washington State. They've already been fighting each other in the locker room after practice, and Dennis Erickson is covering up the actions of the team's best player and resident thug Vontaze Burfict. Not only did he cold-cock his teammate, he reportedly has been in several near-scraps at the campus rec center. Sounds like a leader cut from the same cloth Towel Boy Rudy Carpenter, who will surely pull the Devils through the tough battles this fall. Eleven losable games in total. Book it.
Notre Dame (8.5) -- Lookie here, the national media idiots are calling for a breakout season. The Domers have no talent. Haven't for years. Taking the unders on the Irrelevant Irish means you need just four losses from the following: South Florida, at Michigan, Michigan State, at Pitt, at Purdue (a peer team), USC, Navy (owns ND), at Wake Forest, Maryland, Boston College and at Stanford. Cha-ching.
Texas (8.5) -- A team that was lucky to go 5-7 last year is listed at 8.5? The Longhorns cleaned house on their coaching staff but it won't matter. They're devoid of any offensive playmakers or offensive identity. The defense is soft. UT is the most underachieving program in CFB history, given the buckets of Five-Stars they sign each year. Does the Longhorn Network have a carrier in Texas yet?
Missouri (7.5) -- Either Mizzou had its run and is set for 4-8, or Bill Simmons' Ewing Theory will prove true in epic proportions. As all evidence of the Pussies Gabbert exit Columbia, the team finds some focus and toughness it couldn't muster with two women under center and puts together a solid season. PYB's sources said the team is ready to follow new QB James Franklin. Speaking of shitty web sites...
Oregon (9.5) -- Just a thought, after remembering how the Ducks were manhandled up front by Auburn in January. We still don't know shit about flag football, the type they play up there in Eugene. A style as fake as its financial backer, Nike, minus the New Delhi sweatshops and poorly made shoes. Anyway, we just think it's a year for the Ducks to believe their own headlines, relax and slip a bit downward. Hopefully, this will diminish the arrogance of their falsely-confident fans in their $329 North Face fleeces.
Who the Hell KnowsUtah (7.5) -- Will the Utes prove they belong with the big boys, or will they melt under the pressure of a schedule with more than two challenging games?
Nevada (8.5) -- Even though QB Colin Kaepernick was hugely overrated (enough so that some idiots are predicting he become a legitimate NFL player), it can't help the Wolpack as they start on the road for three of their first four games at Oregon, Texas Tech and Boise State. What follows is a bunch of WAC stiffs, but there is too much uncertainty here to make a wager either way.
Florida (8) -- Is it just us, or is it hard just looking at Will Muschamp's doughy fucking face?
Auburn (6.5) -- How long until War Eagle is on probation following Cam Newton's slimy career?
Tennessee (6.5) -- Do the Vols still play football?
North Carolina (8.5) -- Does anyone in the country have an opinion one way or the other on UNC football?
West Virginia (9) -- Is Pat White still their quarterback? Amos Zereoue is money too. Is that old guy still their coach?
Oregon State (6) -- No clue.
BYU (8.5) -- Ditto, even though the Cougars will play a big role in several of the aforementioned wagers.