2009 CFB Over/Under

College Football Season Win Over/Under Predictions

Let's go down the line with some fearless predictions on the darkhorses and pending flops this season:

Ole Miss (o/u 9 wins): UNDER......This may not be a guaranteed win, but there is ZERO chance you will lose. The best they can possibly do, despite their horrible non-conference schedule, is nine wins. This has less to do with the actual team than about the pressure they will be under. Sure they beat the Jesus-Christ-led Gators in the Swamp last year, but their defense was suspect and their win over an unmotivated, defense-less Texas Tech squad has them highly overrated going into 2009. Nice offense, not even close to enough on defense. This is the Clemson of 2009. Those of you who bet that under in 2008 know that, as that bet was locked up in week 3. Cha-ching....or at least a push...which in my book is a win!

Notre Lame (o/u 9): UNDER......This is the easiest money ever....despite the fact I've never won a wager involving ND in my life. But 9 wins? This for a team who lost to two eight-loss teams last season. This is nothing more than media hype, trying so hard to prop up the glory days of 1923 when in reality the team hasn't been above average in nearly 20 years. The schedule is completely embarrassing, but they still won't go better than 8-4. This is because they have no speed or talent and their coach is an arrogant slob who hasn't gotten the job done. Keep hoping, NBC & ESPN, and maybe the Irish again become relevant in something other than soccer.

Oklahoma State (o/u 9): PUSH...I would tend to say UNDER on this one, but the schedule sets up favorably. Unders could come in, however, because this is a nice team when not facing any pressure, but everyone knows how things change when the hunter becomes the hunted.....the Pokes will be in the same boat as the Rebels this season.

Miami FL (o/u 7.5): ?????.....Every ACC game played last season finished with a score of 23-20 (I think), and I had no idea how to pick a winner of one of them even without the spread. I have no idea here, either.

North Carolina (o/u 8): North Carolina has a football team?

Georgia Tech (o/u 8.5): See Miami FL

BYU (o/u 9): Nine wins seems low for a BYU line, until you look at the schedule. With matchups against Oklahoma, Florida State, TCU and Utah, this is a more legitimate schedule than most of the 'big boys' (see Penn State's atrocious lineup of stiff opponents....not that anyone in the media will mention it because they're too busy blowing JoePa). The Cougars could go over with a big win in one of these four games, but there's no reason to put your hard-earned money behind it. You'd be better off betting the overs on their QB having more than nine wives by 2015 or consuming more than 9 Mg of caffeine by week 3.

Florida State (o/u 7.5): See Georgia Tech. The most amazing part of this story is how this program has been allowed to fall into mediocrity, while sitting smack-dab in the middle of the country's best talent pool. At least other traditional powers have an excuse...cold weather, no local talent, no hot snatch on campus....but the sole reason FSU sucks is because they allow their 89 year old coach (no offense) to act as a figurehead while the program wallows. He can't even keep his players from rioting at the student union, how is he supposed to make them block, tackle and run....or win a game. Pure chaos.

Nebraska (o/u 8): PUSH.....I simply cannot see a reason to bet over here. This team is capable of winning up to 10 games, as speed and athleticism are replenished and coaching has restores at least part of the attacking mindset. A running game helps too. But there is not one proven WR and a first-year QB is never a recipe for consistency. Call it 3-1 in the mostly-cushy non-conference schedule. After that, there is just one (Iowa St.) sure victory and another near-lock (Kansas St.) However, games in Lincoln vs. Oklahoma and Texas Tech and road trips to Missouri, Kansas, Baylor and Colorado could be tough if first-year QB Zac Lee doesn't grow up very quickly. Save your money here, but I'm calling for 8 wins due solely on Pelini's track record for having his team play to (or above) its potential in 2008.

UCLA (o/u 6.5): UCLA has a football team?

Oregon (o/u 7.5): No opinion. I don't know much about flag football.

Wisconsin (o/u 8): OVER....Even though the Badgers have some big holes to fill from a largely mediocre team that returns only 11 starters, I say take the over due to a favorable slate. If they can fight off Fresno St. at home in week two, they should finish non-conference play 4-0. After that it's home dates vs. Michigan St., Iowa, Purdue and Bitchigan (giving 3 wins in 4 of these games) and road contests at Minnesota, Ohio State, Northwestern and Indiana (giving 3 wins here too, especially given the fact that Kevin Cosgrove is the new DC for the Golden Gophers). UW will do what it does best, rack up unimpressive wins during the offseason, get overbid for its bowl game, and then make us a ton of money on 1/1/2010 by getting blasted by a speedy team it has no business playing. Thanks, Badgers......Jump Around.....

Tennessee (o/u 7).....PUSH.....Oh wait, is this over/under 7 recruiting violations or wins in 2009? What a mess and embarrassment Lane Kiffin has been so far. It should get even more entertaining to watch his imminent meltdowns onces games actually start and he starts taking beatings from his SEC brethren. The non-conference foes should give it up more easily than a small-town freshman chick to a varsity football player, making a 4-0 start all but guaranteed. The matchup vs. UCLA in Knoxville should be reminiscent of the heavyweight bitch-slap fight that Deion Sanders and Andre Rison had years ago, and you have to consider a game vs. any Frank-Solich-coached team a layup. The UCLA game was a great game in 2008, and we didn't even know how shitty the two teams were until a couple weeks later! Either way, there should be a good-enough mix of 'signature wins' and horrid losses to get to seven wins here.

Bitchigan (o/u 6.5).....Give me the OVER here! Despite the ineptitude of 2008, I'm thinking RichRod uses the perfect storm of a few more of his players, a little experience in his system, and less-than-mediocre Big 11 competition to put together 7 wins.....Two of the first three weeks offer up easy wins from UM's neighbors, Eastern and Western Michigan, and then a Clash of the Titans against Notre Dame. I call it 4-0 to start, and then if UM can steal one of its next two road games at Iowa and Michigan State, we've got a 5-1 start. Next is cupcake Delaware State, followed by a matchup vs. GROSSLY overrated Penn St. A win here could lock it up, and if you can stand to watch Brent Musburger call this game and jack off to JoePa (or the wax figure they use as his decoy), Hail to the Victor, the Big House and Tim Tebow for 4 hours....you're a better man than I......

Florida (o/u 11)....UNDER.....Speaking of Tim Teabag.....he will certainly be tired from his offseason stint as Mother Theresa II, Joe Montana and Barry Sanders all wrapped into one. I actually think a push is likely, but you can take the under here and get a least the push since UF isn't that good (won the NC last year after losing a game) and will lose one game. Then you can root against them to lose two, while you watch the game on mute to drown out all the hype the announcers throw Tebow's way, making even The Golf Channel's love affair on Tiger Woods look like a small man crush. Not sure that makes total sense, but I think you know what I mean. SIDE NOTE....Take Tebow +175 to win the Heisman...if he stays healthy and racks up at least 15 one-yard-plunge TDs and keeps his knuckleball on target for his 850 passing yards, the media will anoint him best CFB player ever and you will win. If he gets hurt and doesn't win, you'll still be happy and won't have to suffer through all the ESPN-driven hype.

Oklahoma (o/u 10)...OVER....The Sooners didn't lose much, at least nothing that can affect it enough to lose twice on this schedule. Their worst game of 2008 (ignoring the BCS game where Stoops went in to brainlock) was vs. UT. I'd expect them to win that game and I just don't see them losing three times. Worst-case scenario is a push. Teams of lesser magnitude have a very difficult time stopping this offense, and only teams with supreme athleticism can make a dent. UT can do it on occasion, because the Horns have the speed even if they are one of the perennially softest teams in the nation. Anyway, take the over and watch Bradford roll up huge numbers again.

USC (o/u 10)....OVER...Same thing here....Trojans may slip down a bit with a new QB, but they will not lose three times. Possible road bumps include an overhyped matchup vs. a constantly overhyped and over-respected Ohio State squad, at Oregon, at Cal, and at Notre Dame. I say worst case is 10-2, more praise for Pete Carroll as the best male cheerleader/head coach ever, and a probable win for those taking the over.

Texas (o/u 10.5)...UNDER....Just a gut feeling, but the Longhorns will not repeat their win over the Sooners. That coupled with another loss at Missouri, Oklahoma State, Baylor or Texas A&M gets the under a win. Not that UT isn't a level above the aforementioned opponents, but everybody knows they are soft and have one to two games a year where they barely show up. Luckily, that's all they have to do for their non-conference lineup of Lousiana-Monroe, Wyoming, UTEP and Central Florida. Does Brent Musburger's dream threesome include Tebow and Colt McCoy?

Penn State (o/u 9.5)....OVER...You would have to say this just because of how utterly pathetic the Lions' schedule is.....How can JoePa schedule Akron, Syracuse, Temple and Eastern Illinois and not take a word of shit about it? The only thing that could bring the unders into play is that Penn State isn't very good...road games at Illinois, Michigan and Michigan State will be the difference. If PSU wasn't the East's last great hope, it would be lambasted for its embarrassing schedule every year. Put them in the SEC or Big 12 and they're .500 at best.....at best.

Ohio State (o/u 9.5)...OVER....This will happen just so all Arizonans are blessed with all the fat Suckeye faithful invading the Phoenix area for 10 days in December/January. Most fans reserve a 5-7 day window for bowl trips, but when all your scumbag union worker fans are off three weeks for end-of-year plant shutdown, that seems to extend things. The only test before the November 7 pillow fight with Penn State comes when OSU hosts USC. Even given a loss there, it's a cakewalk to 8-1. Getting past Iowa & Michigan is all that stands between you and the over. The true question is how many weeks it will take Musburger to develop a bigger man crush on Terrelle Pryor than Mr. McCoy.

Alabama (o/u 9)....OVER....A year of experience under Nick Satan and a favorable schedule are the main factors here. 'Bama has the type of speed that can rattle and dominate the over-rated Tyrod Taylor (Deion Sanders cockiness, with Conference USA ability) in the season opener. After that it's cupcakes or home games against mid-level conference foes. Even losses at VT, Ole Miss and Auburn make this a push, so looks like a can't lose proposition.

Georiga (o/u 8.5)....UNDER....UGA's overrated offense of 2008 loses Stafford and Moreno and now has a questionable line. Schedule includes games at Okie State, Arkansas, Tennessee, Vandy, Florida and Georgia Tech. They host Arizona State, South Carolina and Auburn. Looks like enough trouble here to get to four losses.

Boise State (0/u 11)....Tough bet. No room for error and potential speed bumps vs. Oregon, at Fresno State, at Hawaii and vs. Nevada. Stay away, there are better wagers abound.

No Opinion on:
LSU (8.5)....Too many questions following an 8-5 campaign in 2008.
Cal (9)....Does anyone ever know enough about this team to bet over 9?
Illinois (8)....Even if they had Juice Keiper, still may not be enough.
South Carolina (6.5)...A team that hasn't shown consistency for years--skip it.