PYB follows up its admittedly lackluster 2009 performance (near .500) with some fearless win total over/under predictions for 2010. For the most part, we're rolling with the under, as there isn't one team that stands above the rest this year and most are saddled with a lot of questions marks. Here we go....
Over
Texas A&M--7... The Aggies have supposed superstar Jerrod Johnson at QB, along with three complete pushovers to begin the season. If they can take two out of the next three games at Oklahoma State, home vs. overrated Arkansas, and home vs. shaky Mizzou, aTm is in good shape. Call it a hunch, but this is Mike Sherman's year to continue his college career or limp back to the NFL as a position coach like Bill Callahan.
Virginia Tech--9.5 ... Bettors here are effectively putting their eggs in one basket if they pull the trigger here. If the Hokies beat Boise State Monday, this means Tyrod Taylor showed up for his senior season and they have a great shot for 2010. Lose, and it's curtains. Have fun.
Auburn--8.5 ... Is Auburn that good? No. But most of their opponents are either outright shitty, or shaky at the best....and all the Tigers' tough games are at home except the Nov. 26 Iron Bowl against Alabama.
BYU--8 ... If the Cougars can take down Jake Locker and Washington this weekend, then a Sept. 18 matchup at Florida State looms large. Either way, the schedule eases up quite nicely (save a matchup at TCU) for a team that won 11 games last season. However, the planned two-quarterback system could prove dangerous to bettors' health.
Under
Nebraska--10...Ten is a huge number for a team that failed to field an offense in most games last season. The bad news--that unit returns 10 starters and still hasn't picked a favorite turd at QB. With only one playmaker in Roy Helu, it's hard to see things changing much. Add that to potential pitfalls at Washington, at Kansas State, vs. Texas, at Oklahoma State and at Texas A&M and this is a recipe for disaster. Either way, 10 is just too many.
Texas--10...Bet the under on both the Longhorns and the Cornhuskers, and you're bound to get at least one loss in your favor on October 16. Despite the fact that the media is salivating over Garrett Gilbert's Rose Bowl mop-up duty, he will be a first year starter who has to go to both Norman and Lincoln. Couple that with the other glaring weaknesses that NU and 'Bama exposed late last season, and the under is the play.
Iowa--9... What do you get when you combine a team that isn't that good, is overrated, lost one of its top running backs because he doesn't want to play after supposedly knocking a chick up, and has six losable games on its schedule? The unders!
Arkansas--8.5 ... Paint the 'Hogs as this year's Ole Miss/Oklahoma State. Ridiculous talk about Heismans and national titles abound for a team that went 8-5 last season will only add to the burden. Games at Georgia, vs. Alabama, at Texas A&M, at Auburn, at South Carolina, and vs. LSU only make this bet easier. Load up.
Penn State--8.5 ... Despite the requisite slate of non-conference creampuffs in Youngstown State, Kent State, and Temple, take the unders here. The Nittany Lions have to travel to Alabama, Iowa and Ohio State and will surely drop another game somewhere...especially since they're continually overrated and have decided to go with true freshman Robert Bolden at quarterback. Will we see JoePa sprinting to the shitters again this year, or has he reached the point where he just wallows in his own mess until halftime?
South Carolina--7.5 ... Will South Carolina ever go anything better than 7-5 under Steve Spurrier? No.
Wisconsin--9.5 ... No reason here. Just a hunch. Will lose to Ohio State just because the whole country wants them to win. Game at Iowa is a coin flip, then the Badgers will tank two game just because they're Wisconsin. Book it.
Washington--6... Jake Locker, yes. Schedule--tough as fuck. At BYU, vs. Syracuse, vs. Nebraska, at USC, Arizona State, Oregon State, at Arizona, at Oregon, at Cal, at Washington State. UNDERS!
Cincinnati--8... The Bearcats could realistically be 1-3 after their first four games, considering they start at Fresno, then travel to NC State two weeks later before hosting Oklahoma. Add in the fact that Brian Kelly abandoned them to become Notre Dame's next ex-coach, and Cincy will wander around aimlessly in 2010. Games at UConn and West Virginia don't help, nor does the season finale against 15th-rated Pitt.
Nevada--9.5 ...Yeah yeah yeah, the Wolfpack has the K-Gun or whatever it is and has the best offense ever until you watch them on TV and they can't move the ball and get blasted whenever they play a decent team. They play Colorado State, Cal, BYU, Fresno, and Boise State. They'll lose at least three games.
UNLV--4... This must be bet just so bettors can have late-night action as Saturdays wind down. Couple that with the fact that any team with a win total of four must be really shitty, and you have a great recipe on how to pound those last two Coors Lights and Parliaments that you have no business smoking week after week after week....
Ohio St--10.5 ... This absolutely must be bet for a myriad of reasons. The media's constant overrating of the Suckeyes---the only team who can beat Akron 21-10 in 'dominating fashion' while other teams get lambasted for 'slipping by' conference foes 42-20. Let's list the other reasons while ignoring their weak schedule (a schedule where they'll still likely need multiple last-second FGs to fend off stiffs like Marshall, Frank Solich-led Ohio, Eastern Michigan, et. al.): Terrelle Pryor's scatter arm, general lack of offensive firepower, lack of any offensive identity, and the mounting pressure that shitty teams feel when trying to run the table. Bet this out of spite, bet it all day. Bet it as a big "FUCK YOU" to Kirk Herbstreit, who went from CFB's best analyst to complete ESPN puppet quicker than you could say "Herbstreit you sucked dick when you played and barely started for a .500 OSU team."
Florida--10... Hunch bet. The schedule is not that treacherous. But Urban Meyer's wavering to retirement, leave of absence to prick who confronts reports and threatens them at practice, along with the fact that the Gators are selling the nation on the fact that they have a 'pure passer' again at QB who will lead them to divine deeds better than that of Saint Tebow and you have the type of denial that spells letdown and UNDER ten. Chomp.
Oklahoma--10.5...Schedule doesn't seem to loom to heavily here, but PYB saw Landry Jones several times last year. Saw him suck. And when OU's offense isn't firing on all cylinders, it isn't firing at all. Consider the Sooners have the Red River shootout, at Mizzou, at aTm, and at Okie State and we smell two losses.
USC--9.5 ... We aren't counting the Trojans as dead. There's a shitload of talent there. But there was a shitload of talent in LA for the 25 years that USC sucked before Rah-Rah Carroll came in. Well, he has left for Seattle, though he should be fired soon. The looming NCAA sanctions could serve as a motivator for the Men of Troy, with a proper leader. Alas, their new coach is a complete train wreck who can't follow protocol in any league and can't keep his foot out of his mouth. Hell, even USC-alum Jeff Fisher wanted a piece of him after Lane Kiffin stole a Titans assistant this summer without Fisher's blessing. Let's call it three losses, as the lack of focus catches up to them in games they used to grind out....at Wazzu, at Stanford, Oregon, at Arizona, at Oregon State, Notre Lame and at UCLA.
Well there you have it. PYB will surely miss early and often here, and will be hedging the shit out of its bets from Week 2 until Thanksgiving. Enjoy the season!
No comments:
Post a Comment