Boise State--Man or Mouse?

Thanks to The Donger for the following....


Washington, DC (AP) – After seven long months, the college football season finally kicks off this Thursday. Officially, it begins with the Blue Hose of Presbyterian College traveling to Winston-Salem to take on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons. For you truly die-hards and degenerate gamblers, the game can be seen live on ESPN3.com at 6:30 PM, EDT. Despite there being over 50 games on opening weekend, the season truly gets going on Monday night at FedEx Field in Washington, DC, as third-ranked Boise State takes on 10th-ranked Virginia Tech. The game can be seen at 8:00 PM, EDT, on ESPN and the early line has Boise State as a 2 ½ point favorite, with the over/under at 50.

The game should definitely be a contrast in styles. Boise State returns all 11 offensive starters from the unit that ranked 1st in 2009 (FBS) in points scored at 42.2 points per game. The offense will be led by QB Kellen Moore who threw for 3,536 yards, 39 TDs and an efficiency rating of 161.7. Moore’s favorite target is Titus Young, but he will spread the wealth, as the Broncos have six players returning that caught at least 21 passes in 2009. Young hauled in 79 passes for 1,041 yards and 14 TDs in leading the team in both categories. The running game is led by Jeremy Avery and Doug Martin, with Avery getting a bulk of the work, carrying 209 times for 1,151 yards last season. Avery also had 23 receptions for 257 yards and 1 TD. Needless to say, the Bronco offense is high-powered.

Don’t let those numbers fool you, though. In 2009, the Defense was on the field nearly 30 minutes per game, despite the Broncos quick strike offense. The defense was 14th in FBS in scoring defense, giving up only 17.1 points per game. That number would have been lower, sans three poor defensive efforts in 2009, giving up 34, 35 and 33 points at Fresno State, at Louisiana Tech and vs. Nevada, respectively. The defense returns 10 of 11 starters, led by Ryan Winterswyk and Jeron Johnson. Winterswyk led the team with 9 sacks and 17 tackles for loss, while Johnson had 91 total tackles and 4 INTs. The defense will be stout again.

There could not be more contrasting styles on the offensive side of the ball. The Hokies will grind it out, leaning on Darren Evans and Ryan Williams to carry a majority of the load. Evans missed all of 2009 after tearing his ACL in fall camp last season. In stepped Williams, who set all kinds of freshman records at VT. Williams rushed for 1,655 yards last season, leading the 14th best rushing attack in CFB. The issue for the Hokies is when they throw the ball. Tyrod Taylor, despite being a senior, has never fully grasped the passing game and it showed, as the Hokies were 95th in the country last season in passing offense. When Taylor does connect with someone, it’s typically Jarrett Boykin. Boykin is coming off a 40 reception season, with five touchdowns and 835 yards.

The Hokie defense was its usual stout self in 2009. The team ended up ranked ninth in the nation in scoring defense, allowing only 15.6 points per game. The Hokies gave up 20 points or more four times in 2009. Three of those times were all three of their losses – 34 vs. Alabama, 28 @ Georgia Tech and 20 at North Carolina. The lone win was a 34-26 win at Duke. Other than that, the Hokies gave up 10, 15, 7,14, 3, 9, 10, 13 and 14 points. In those 9 wins, that is an average of 10.5 points per game. Only four starters return this season, so it is paramount that Bud Foster reloads and reloads quickly. John Graves will head the defensive line, with Barquell Rivers heading the backers and 4 year starter Rashard Carmichael leading the DB’s.

The final analysis says that the tempo of the game will go a long way to determining the outcome. If the Hokies can get their ground game going, keep their young defense off the field for long stretches and keep the highly partisan crowd in the game, then they should come out on top. However, if Moore & Company is successful early, and often, throwing the ball, the game could become one-sided. Given the Hokies’ historic success on ESPN, Tyrod Taylor’s feet, the long travel for Boise, the National Championship hype/pressure on Boise and the home Maroon & Orange crowd, the feeling here is a Hokie victory, albeit by a narrow margin….

….call it 21-17, Hokies.

~The Dong